Thomas Stewart
- Media Contact
I am interested in analyzing expert or professional judgment under conditions of complexity and uncertainty. Why are some judges more accurate than others? How can judgments be improved? I use Brunswik's lens model framework and the lens model equation to analyze various components of expert skill. I am particularly interested in practical applications of judgment and decision research to public policy issues and to improving professional judgment.
Primary Interests:
- Applied Social Psychology
- Judgment and Decision Making
- Research Methods, Assessment
- Social Cognition
Books:
- Hammond, K. R., & Stewart, T. R. (Eds.). (2001). The essential Brunswik: Beginnings, explications, applications. New York: Oxford University Press.
Journal Articles:
- Ghaffarzadegan, N., & Stewart, T. R. (2011). An extension to the constructivist coding hypothesis as a learning model for selective feedback when the base rate is high. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 37(4), 1044-1047
- Mumpower, J. L., & Stewart, T. R. (1996). Expert judgment and expert disagreement. Thinking and Reasoning, 2, 191-211.
- Stewart, T. R. (2009). Social judgment theory. In M. Kattan (Ed.), Encyclopedia of Medical Decision Making. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, Inc.
- Stewart, T. R. (1991). Scientists' uncertainty and disagreement about global climate change: A psychological perspective. International Journal of Psychology, 26, 565-573.
- Stewart, T. R. (1987). The Delphi technique and judgmental forecasting. Climatic Change, 11, 97-113.
- Stewart, T. R., & Lusk, C. M. (1994). Seven components of judgmental forecasting skill: Implications for research and the improvement of forecasts. Journal of Forecasting, 13, 575-599.
- Stewart, T. R., Moninger, W. R., Grassia, J., Brady, R. H., & Merrem, F. H. (1989). Analysis of expert judgment and skill in a hail forecasting experiment. Weather and Forecasting, 4, 24-34.
- Stewart, T. R., Moninger, W. R., Heideman, K. F., & Reagan-Cirincione, P. (1992). Effects of improved information on the components of skill in weather forecasting. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 53, 107-134.
- Stewart, T. R., & Mumpower, J. L. (2004). Detection and selection decisions in the practice of screening mammography. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 23(4), 908-920.
- Stewart, T. R., Mumpower, J. L., & Holzworth, R. J. (2012). Learning to make selection and detection decisions: The roles of base rate and feedback. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 25(5), 522-533.
- Stewart, T. R., Pielke, R. Jr., & Nath, R. (2004). Understanding user decision making and the value of improved precipitation forecasts: Lessons from a case study. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 85(2), 223-235.
- Stewart, T. R., Roebber, P. J., & Bosart, L. F. (1997). The importance of the task in analyzing expert judgment. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 69, 205-219.
- Weaver, E. A., & Stewart, T. R. (2012). Dimensions of judgment: Factor analysis of individual differences. Behavioral Decision Making (Special Issue: Individual Differences in Decision-Making Competence), 25(4), 402-413.
Other Publications:
- Stewart, T. R. (2009). The lens model. In M. Kattan (Ed.), Encyclopedia of Medical Decision Making. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, Inc.
- Stewart, T. R. (2001). Improving reliability of judgmental forecasts. In J. S. Armstrong (Ed.), Principles of forecasting: A handbook for researchers and practitioners (pp. 81-106). Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
- Stewart, T. R. (2001). The lens model equation. In K. R. Hammond & T. R. Stewart (Eds.), The essential Brunswik: Beginnings, explications, applications (pp. 357-362). New York: Oxford University Press.
- Stewart, T. R. (2000). Uncertainty, judgment, and error in prediction. In D. Sarewitz, R. Pielke, Jr., & R. Byerly, Jr. (Eds.), Prediction: Decision making and the future of nature (pp. 41-57). Washington, DC: Island Press.
Courses Taught:
Thomas Stewart
Center for Policy Research
135 Western Avenue, Milne 300
University at Albany
Albany, New York 12222
United States of America
- Phone: (518) 442-3855
- Fax: (518) 442-3398